* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 51 43 35 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 51 43 35 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 52 48 40 33 29 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 3 4 4 7 8 13 20 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 8 6 7 0 1 1 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 222 212 271 283 269 263 227 228 249 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.5 24.8 24.3 22.9 22.4 22.9 23.2 22.4 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 119 112 107 92 87 92 95 87 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 51 50 46 45 43 42 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 23 23 20 17 16 14 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 41 33 32 13 -14 -19 -53 -71 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -11 -10 3 2 -20 -15 14 16 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 11 7 7 4 7 15 9 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1302 1377 1462 1551 1647 1831 1869 1905 1846 1788 1769 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.6 21.6 23.0 24.7 26.5 28.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.2 126.5 127.9 129.2 131.8 134.2 136.4 138.4 140.1 141.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -25. -30. -35. -41. -50. -52. -53. -54. -56. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.3 123.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##