* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 53 50 43 36 29 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 53 50 43 36 29 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 52 48 41 35 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 2 3 4 10 6 12 20 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 9 7 6 2 -1 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 172 169 109 186 267 290 282 246 225 227 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.6 25.8 25.4 24.8 23.1 22.7 22.4 23.3 23.1 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 122 118 112 94 90 87 96 94 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 52 51 47 47 44 45 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 16 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 43 42 32 24 1 -23 -31 -54 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -20 -14 -11 5 -4 -15 -8 19 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 8 10 9 5 6 10 17 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1244 1312 1389 1470 1558 1750 1861 1901 1878 1772 1702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 21.0 22.2 23.7 25.3 27.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.7 124.0 125.3 126.6 127.9 130.6 133.1 135.4 137.6 139.5 141.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -13. -17. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -24. -31. -33. -39. -47. -48. -48. -49. -49. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.1 122.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##