* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 52 47 39 32 28 23 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 52 47 39 32 28 23 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 56 53 50 43 36 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 1 1 6 7 7 11 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 9 9 7 4 0 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 181 169 148 137 254 275 290 226 224 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.3 25.5 25.8 25.4 24.3 22.9 22.4 22.9 23.2 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 119 122 118 107 92 87 92 95 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 54 53 50 48 47 46 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 25 24 23 19 16 16 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 41 44 46 30 12 -13 -22 -53 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -2 -18 -19 -5 -9 -27 -5 18 24 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 14 10 7 9 8 4 9 16 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1149 1238 1307 1381 1463 1641 1823 1861 1913 1837 1748 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.7 21.7 23.1 24.7 26.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.3 126.6 129.2 131.8 134.2 136.5 138.5 140.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -16. -20. -23. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -21. -28. -32. -37. -42. -42. -42. -42. -42. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.1 121.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##