* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 52 50 47 43 36 30 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 52 50 47 43 36 30 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 47 43 38 34 28 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 6 6 3 4 5 10 14 11 16 20 22 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 4 0 7 3 5 0 -1 3 2 4 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 136 179 167 157 174 176 261 284 280 291 271 245 245 236 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 25.4 24.9 23.5 22.8 22.5 23.2 23.2 22.3 21.6 21.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 137 134 118 113 99 91 88 95 95 85 78 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 65 61 59 55 54 51 48 49 47 46 46 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 23 20 19 18 15 14 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 38 44 46 40 37 20 1 -18 -36 -73 -92 -110 -118 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 -1 -1 9 15 2 -2 -12 -23 -11 14 5 14 12 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 12 15 15 17 11 11 10 13 13 16 14 30 23 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 867 909 960 1032 1110 1269 1411 1594 1772 1837 1891 1859 1848 1788 1727 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.2 23.4 24.9 26.6 28.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.1 119.1 120.2 121.3 123.8 126.3 129.0 131.7 134.2 136.4 138.1 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -16. -16. -19. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -19. -25. -28. -32. -36. -44. -52. -53. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 22.5% 21.5% 15.8% 11.8% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.8% 7.2% 5.3% 3.9% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##