* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 57 54 48 44 39 35 33 31 31 30 30 29 27 28 V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 57 54 48 44 39 35 33 31 31 30 30 29 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 60 57 54 49 45 42 40 38 36 35 35 36 35 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 6 8 10 12 13 10 13 10 15 14 19 22 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 -1 6 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 164 205 220 214 220 245 249 258 257 276 270 274 256 248 244 246 233 SST (C) 24.5 24.2 24.1 24.4 25.0 25.8 25.8 25.6 26.3 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 108 105 103 107 113 121 121 119 127 133 134 131 128 126 124 122 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 47 46 43 40 37 37 41 41 43 44 44 42 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 16 16 14 15 13 14 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 63 68 72 60 58 43 47 44 33 21 15 13 16 21 18 200 MB DIV 10 1 0 8 -1 3 -24 -8 -31 -33 -19 -3 -1 5 5 2 23 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 4 5 1 3 3 0 0 0 3 5 5 7 15 16 LAND (KM) 2145 2077 1966 1856 1746 1516 1286 1067 847 618 429 293 210 198 200 235 292 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.3 19.8 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.9 135.0 136.0 137.0 138.1 140.3 142.5 144.6 146.7 148.9 150.7 152.0 153.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 9 5 3 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -11. -10. -11. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -32. -34. -34. -35. -35. -36. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.3 133.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##