* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 60 57 51 46 42 37 35 32 31 29 27 28 26 23 V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 60 57 51 46 42 37 35 32 31 29 27 28 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 61 58 55 50 45 42 40 39 37 35 33 32 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 10 8 11 13 15 14 14 16 17 19 20 17 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 4 2 0 -2 1 6 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 193 165 193 209 203 232 254 259 256 261 279 274 272 264 250 252 260 SST (C) 25.7 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.4 25.6 26.2 26.4 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 113 109 107 107 119 126 128 124 125 128 128 129 129 129 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 48 47 47 42 39 37 37 39 41 41 44 41 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 20 19 17 16 15 16 14 14 13 12 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 58 69 62 63 67 66 64 49 40 51 47 39 31 27 24 10 -12 200 MB DIV 24 3 5 5 8 16 -12 -13 -11 -6 -27 -17 1 -14 -9 7 -2 700-850 TADV 8 5 2 3 4 4 2 2 1 0 1 2 7 6 7 12 7 LAND (KM) 2053 2138 2083 1967 1851 1610 1370 1130 891 662 474 326 208 159 173 226 331 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 19.2 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.8 134.9 136.0 137.1 139.4 141.7 144.0 146.3 148.5 150.3 151.7 152.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 4 3 4 4 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -23. -28. -30. -33. -34. -36. -38. -37. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.0 132.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##