* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 53 50 45 38 34 29 28 27 25 26 25 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 53 50 45 38 34 29 28 27 25 26 25 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 54 50 44 39 35 33 31 30 29 27 27 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 7 10 10 10 13 14 14 14 14 12 12 8 11 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 1 1 5 1 0 0 2 4 5 3 2 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 188 195 192 203 207 218 241 253 250 241 251 252 273 258 262 234 239 SST (C) 24.6 25.6 25.0 24.5 24.3 24.9 25.9 26.5 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 120 113 108 106 112 123 129 125 125 128 128 128 129 130 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 52 48 47 43 41 38 38 37 40 42 42 44 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 21 21 20 18 17 16 17 17 15 16 15 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 71 69 73 77 62 51 46 55 50 53 37 24 23 17 -5 200 MB DIV 28 23 8 14 13 4 -9 -21 -4 -16 -18 -33 -15 -7 0 16 9 700-850 TADV 6 9 5 2 3 3 1 0 0 -2 0 2 5 4 4 6 13 LAND (KM) 1959 2041 2126 2088 1966 1725 1485 1244 995 757 563 398 270 179 97 116 124 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.0 19.7 19.3 18.9 18.7 18.7 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.6 133.7 134.9 136.0 138.3 140.6 142.9 145.3 147.6 149.5 151.1 152.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 5 4 4 5 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -9. -8. -10. -8. -9. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -27. -31. -36. -37. -38. -40. -39. -40. -38. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.8 131.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##