* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 55 52 49 44 37 31 27 22 20 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 59 55 52 49 44 37 31 27 22 20 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 55 51 48 43 38 34 31 29 28 26 24 22 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 7 9 10 12 15 14 15 18 19 23 18 20 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 2 2 1 4 2 0 0 0 5 1 0 2 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 122 179 189 189 209 232 242 255 257 256 253 268 278 273 266 266 260 SST (C) 23.9 25.0 25.7 24.9 24.6 24.5 25.7 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 101 113 121 112 109 108 121 127 128 126 128 130 130 129 130 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 53 52 48 46 43 40 37 38 39 42 44 46 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 21 21 19 17 17 15 16 15 15 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 64 73 73 77 73 56 50 41 53 49 48 27 25 21 4 200 MB DIV 20 29 21 7 13 6 18 -19 -10 -18 -10 -16 -17 -3 -18 0 4 700-850 TADV 3 5 9 5 2 3 3 0 0 0 -1 1 2 8 6 5 11 LAND (KM) 1893 1976 2062 2152 2062 1819 1579 1349 1110 862 639 458 309 195 94 30 44 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.9 19.9 19.7 19.3 18.9 18.5 18.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.7 132.8 134.0 135.1 137.4 139.7 141.9 144.2 146.6 148.8 150.6 152.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 4 7 5 5 6 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -11. -12. -11. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -16. -21. -28. -34. -38. -43. -45. -48. -49. -50. -50. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.6 130.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##