* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 70 65 59 52 46 42 34 31 27 24 22 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 70 65 59 52 46 42 34 31 27 24 22 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 73 68 63 56 50 44 39 35 31 28 25 23 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 3 5 6 7 12 13 17 16 20 22 21 21 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 0 3 4 4 3 0 4 0 3 0 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 162 182 214 197 222 229 239 248 253 254 254 255 259 269 261 258 249 SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.1 25.1 24.7 24.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 110 107 104 114 110 112 122 122 121 126 128 130 131 132 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 53 53 52 53 48 49 42 40 38 41 42 46 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 23 21 21 20 19 19 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 54 65 79 64 80 78 68 74 44 47 33 31 26 32 25 25 200 MB DIV -4 -6 16 27 22 27 10 -7 -1 -22 -14 -28 -36 -19 -7 10 6 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 6 3 5 1 7 2 1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1619 1682 1748 1826 1906 2077 2040 1798 1547 1296 1046 808 573 372 205 120 187 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.6 19.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.9 128.8 129.9 130.9 133.1 135.3 137.6 140.0 142.4 144.8 147.1 149.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 15 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. -37. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -26. -33. -39. -43. -51. -54. -58. -61. -63. -64. -64. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.2 126.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 586.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##