* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 93 87 83 72 62 52 43 37 31 27 26 25 26 27 29 V (KT) LAND 100 98 93 87 83 72 62 52 43 37 31 27 26 25 26 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 91 84 78 66 56 50 45 40 35 32 30 28 27 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 4 5 2 3 9 13 9 14 12 13 15 17 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 -1 -1 2 -2 1 0 4 0 0 1 4 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 134 163 175 149 167 176 155 194 236 252 251 250 240 229 254 249 259 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.2 25.0 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 115 113 104 113 107 108 113 122 125 128 131 134 134 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 59 58 56 53 52 50 50 47 47 41 39 36 37 38 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 23 24 24 23 21 21 20 19 17 17 16 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 55 65 73 75 71 87 81 87 77 86 63 69 59 61 47 53 49 200 MB DIV -12 -8 -5 -2 -1 21 -1 -6 1 -3 -3 -21 -6 -22 -3 -26 0 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1469 1511 1558 1611 1669 1807 1979 2146 1904 1652 1391 1131 865 596 358 198 225 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.2 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.4 126.2 127.1 128.0 129.9 132.0 134.3 136.6 139.0 141.5 144.0 146.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 7 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -26. -33. -40. -45. -49. -51. -52. -53. -55. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -13. -17. -28. -38. -48. -57. -63. -69. -73. -74. -75. -74. -73. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.9 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 636.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 41 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##