* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 61 68 72 78 78 78 78 75 70 64 60 56 51 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 61 68 72 78 78 78 78 75 70 64 60 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 60 64 66 67 67 65 64 60 53 47 41 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 11 7 17 15 4 1 3 3 3 3 3 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 6 7 1 -5 1 0 4 2 6 0 2 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 18 2 346 318 325 328 331 134 166 132 70 22 45 246 260 278 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.5 25.1 24.3 22.8 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 152 153 149 142 137 137 135 132 128 119 115 107 91 91 94 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 75 75 73 75 74 74 71 67 63 56 55 51 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 27 29 29 33 32 32 33 32 30 28 26 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -7 -6 -9 -7 -6 9 8 27 35 58 59 62 43 22 20 200 MB DIV 66 66 94 105 114 61 45 95 19 30 -10 8 -22 -23 -12 -9 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -8 -7 -5 -3 0 2 11 6 9 3 2 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 568 611 659 716 744 756 808 890 965 1075 1207 1340 1462 1611 1779 1835 1924 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.1 110.9 111.7 113.2 114.8 116.4 118.1 119.9 121.9 124.1 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 27 30 29 16 6 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 15. 15. 15. 16. 14. 11. 7. 4. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 27. 33. 33. 33. 33. 30. 25. 19. 16. 11. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 108.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 23.9% 23.3% 18.1% 0.0% 19.1% 16.8% 15.8% Logistic: 0.9% 3.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.9% 3.2% 2.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 10.6% 6.1% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 4.4% 12.8% 10.5% 7.0% 0.1% 7.1% 6.7% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##