* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 82 80 75 67 60 53 47 42 40 37 36 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 82 80 75 67 60 53 47 42 40 37 36 38 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 84 80 75 68 60 53 49 45 40 37 35 33 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 1 2 3 3 2 7 12 9 13 14 14 12 14 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 0 -3 0 0 2 0 3 -1 -2 -1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 96 46 97 215 56 158 246 278 205 243 261 250 251 243 229 252 242 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.0 25.2 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 122 118 113 103 115 107 108 112 120 121 125 129 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 60 57 53 51 51 49 48 47 44 40 39 38 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 26 24 26 26 25 24 22 22 21 21 20 18 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 65 72 82 76 100 84 91 76 78 55 64 51 55 47 47 200 MB DIV 18 19 19 19 8 -9 23 -7 4 7 -1 0 -3 -18 -25 -10 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 3 -2 6 6 3 4 1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1356 1410 1462 1504 1550 1668 1831 2005 2114 1861 1620 1380 1119 837 571 333 181 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.0 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.6 124.4 125.2 126.1 127.9 130.1 132.3 134.6 137.0 139.3 141.6 144.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -24. -29. -34. -38. -40. -42. -44. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -10. -15. -23. -30. -37. -43. -48. -50. -52. -54. -52. -52. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.4 122.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 518.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##