* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 85 84 80 74 68 65 59 56 53 51 49 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 85 84 80 74 68 65 59 56 53 51 49 51 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 84 83 77 70 64 60 56 51 47 44 42 42 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 6 5 3 4 1 3 4 10 8 5 10 8 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -3 1 -1 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 33 45 29 53 40 24 25 304 306 262 252 275 261 268 279 239 224 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.0 24.3 25.0 24.6 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 132 129 124 113 106 113 109 105 115 124 127 129 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 67 65 60 57 53 55 52 54 50 50 47 45 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 27 28 27 25 25 26 24 24 23 22 20 20 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 52 59 60 71 68 78 76 86 88 91 91 73 76 64 67 60 54 200 MB DIV 33 39 31 25 26 -9 -27 12 -6 -6 4 -17 -6 -5 -5 5 10 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 0 5 -1 0 6 5 3 0 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1245 1291 1344 1402 1465 1568 1680 1821 1982 2176 1930 1667 1406 1147 880 606 343 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.0 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.1 122.1 123.1 124.0 125.8 127.6 129.6 131.7 134.0 136.4 138.9 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -34. -36. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -36. -34. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.3 120.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 21.8% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 8.4% 5.6% 0.3% 0.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##