* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 16 21 25 32 33 47 45 46 42 27 26 28 41 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 11 9 4 0 0 6 0 2 -5 -1 5 3 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 322 322 288 278 282 268 262 272 258 253 248 240 281 309 348 6 13 SST (C) 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.5 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.5 24.9 25.6 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 104 108 113 116 115 118 118 116 119 119 119 113 120 110 106 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 -55.8 -55.1 -55.8 -55.8 -55.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 43 43 42 42 40 39 38 39 39 45 48 56 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 16 14 13 14 13 15 15 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 26 26 28 39 46 45 48 46 50 49 42 31 20 -19 -48 200 MB DIV -21 -11 -11 -16 -17 5 4 17 -13 4 5 12 20 15 2 -6 -30 700-850 TADV 0 1 7 9 7 5 4 9 7 10 9 10 11 22 13 -3 -13 LAND (KM) 1481 1361 1244 1127 1012 829 671 531 430 362 352 498 733 1022 1314 1627 1922 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.4 26.1 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.8 142.0 143.2 144.4 145.6 147.7 149.9 152.1 154.4 156.9 159.4 162.1 164.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -15. -26. -35. -40. -42. -43. -45. -53. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -10. -8. -9. -6. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -20. -28. -39. -46. -50. -53. -53. -57. -68. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.1 140.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##