* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 32 29 27 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 32 29 27 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 28 25 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 9 13 22 27 34 41 45 46 52 43 22 24 25 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 8 9 7 1 0 1 2 4 -1 -4 0 5 2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 317 321 320 295 276 277 268 275 267 260 258 243 244 276 342 345 2 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.3 25.3 25.8 25.3 25.7 25.4 25.9 25.1 25.8 25.1 24.9 24.4 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 108 113 116 117 122 116 121 118 123 115 122 115 113 107 101 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.7 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 47 47 44 43 43 43 40 39 39 41 38 39 41 46 47 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 17 16 16 16 18 16 14 14 13 13 12 13 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 43 34 33 25 27 33 46 47 49 52 54 46 43 32 26 15 -24 200 MB DIV -4 -17 -16 -15 -20 -7 -10 11 -7 -9 14 -3 13 33 -1 6 5 700-850 TADV 8 1 2 5 7 5 3 8 8 10 6 5 3 14 9 9 -1 LAND (KM) 1600 1480 1360 1240 1121 905 713 553 421 353 289 361 560 829 1088 1344 1605 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.6 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.6 140.8 142.0 143.2 144.4 146.7 149.0 151.4 153.7 156.0 158.5 161.0 163.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -21. -29. -36. -41. -41. -43. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -13. -17. -19. -22. -30. -41. -47. -55. -58. -60. -60. -66. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 139.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##