* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 37 34 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 37 34 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 37 35 31 28 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 9 8 20 23 31 36 44 44 47 39 22 50 39 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 6 6 1 1 2 1 1 0 -1 0 2 -10 3 2 SHEAR DIR 303 319 328 319 291 278 265 273 278 268 258 250 248 316 359 349 341 SST (C) 24.4 24.2 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.2 25.6 25.3 24.6 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 106 109 113 114 117 116 116 119 121 116 121 117 109 112 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 46 44 43 44 40 42 44 42 41 41 40 42 48 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 14 13 11 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 38 37 32 29 40 39 39 46 49 46 29 20 -5 -24 -43 200 MB DIV 5 -8 -19 -20 -10 -10 -2 3 10 -5 4 -1 -17 9 3 -6 -22 700-850 TADV 15 4 0 1 5 6 8 8 11 10 15 3 11 6 10 2 0 LAND (KM) 1711 1590 1470 1346 1224 1000 803 646 508 391 341 336 505 763 1028 1266 1510 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.5 139.7 140.9 142.2 143.4 145.8 148.1 150.2 152.4 154.8 157.3 160.1 163.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -9. -17. -25. -31. -35. -36. -41. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -25. -33. -41. -47. -53. -59. -63. -69. -78. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.7 138.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##