* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 84 86 87 85 79 74 70 67 63 61 58 58 58 59 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 84 86 87 85 79 74 70 67 63 61 58 58 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 81 81 80 76 71 68 66 65 63 60 57 56 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 7 11 10 7 5 5 5 3 4 4 6 6 8 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -2 2 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 35 22 17 34 37 72 15 349 348 345 297 281 274 264 279 273 250 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.3 27.1 26.8 25.9 25.4 24.8 24.8 25.3 26.0 26.0 25.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 137 135 132 122 117 110 111 116 124 124 120 128 127 126 127 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 69 68 66 62 59 55 56 56 55 51 49 48 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 27 27 28 28 27 28 28 28 27 27 26 25 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 53 57 73 84 78 88 86 105 90 99 86 86 77 73 66 200 MB DIV 41 51 39 29 30 -2 -18 5 19 11 -8 -13 -4 -9 -20 9 27 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -7 -5 -2 -1 -2 2 0 0 5 6 4 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1114 1183 1241 1300 1367 1523 1655 1772 1907 2051 2212 1993 1737 1483 1231 989 759 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.7 119.9 121.0 122.1 124.2 126.1 127.8 129.7 131.6 133.6 135.9 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -23. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 4. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -17. -17. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 24.8% 22.9% 17.4% 13.3% 15.1% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 13.2% 6.7% 4.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.1% 4.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.1% 14.0% 10.1% 7.5% 5.9% 5.5% 3.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##