* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 77 79 81 79 74 71 66 62 59 56 52 52 50 50 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 77 79 81 79 74 71 66 62 59 56 52 52 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 73 74 74 73 69 66 63 60 58 55 52 49 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 8 12 7 6 6 5 3 4 6 7 7 9 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 35 34 29 26 39 53 22 2 350 353 287 282 240 254 265 269 248 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.1 26.3 25.6 24.8 24.6 24.4 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.9 26.3 25.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 137 135 126 119 110 108 106 119 117 115 123 127 121 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 67 69 67 63 58 58 55 55 52 51 47 45 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 28 28 29 28 27 28 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 58 59 63 75 77 74 77 84 101 92 92 85 82 85 74 200 MB DIV 43 47 51 23 18 25 -36 -7 -4 18 9 0 0 -15 -15 -7 9 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -7 -8 -1 -3 -2 -1 2 0 1 8 6 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1029 1098 1165 1223 1291 1432 1576 1696 1821 1948 2108 2094 1840 1574 1310 1046 784 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.5 118.7 119.9 121.1 123.2 125.2 127.1 128.9 130.7 132.7 134.9 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 9. 5. 1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -18. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.8 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 22.5% 21.1% 15.9% 12.3% 14.5% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 7.1% 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 10.1% 8.0% 5.9% 4.6% 5.0% 3.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##