* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 35 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 35 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 37 35 30 27 24 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 15 12 10 9 15 28 28 33 37 45 46 45 27 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 3 5 0 0 1 4 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 239 265 286 302 323 307 276 283 276 282 272 267 260 249 257 345 6 SST (C) 23.8 24.0 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.7 25.2 25.6 25.4 25.7 24.9 25.8 24.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 103 108 109 107 108 113 114 120 115 120 118 122 113 123 109 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 57 53 49 46 46 43 42 39 40 42 42 41 43 38 37 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 22 21 18 17 16 16 16 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 41 40 43 35 31 40 51 41 42 47 46 35 17 2 -28 200 MB DIV 12 5 4 12 -2 -14 -15 -3 -6 21 -13 -6 -1 -24 -18 0 -20 700-850 TADV 9 13 13 12 5 3 8 3 4 11 4 12 7 8 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 2049 1938 1830 1717 1606 1365 1118 896 698 553 422 351 300 413 639 922 1213 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.3 137.3 138.4 139.5 141.9 144.4 146.8 149.1 151.2 153.4 155.8 158.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -16. -20. -26. -31. -34. -41. -46. -51. -57. -60. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.1 135.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##