* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 82 86 88 87 84 77 72 66 62 57 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 82 86 88 87 84 77 72 66 62 57 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 76 79 81 82 80 77 72 66 61 58 55 51 48 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 10 9 8 12 7 7 4 5 3 9 6 15 12 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 0 2 -4 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 37 37 24 27 33 49 56 349 339 332 281 275 243 254 244 255 242 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.8 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.3 25.5 25.2 24.8 25.9 25.9 25.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 142 137 132 121 115 110 106 119 116 112 124 123 120 126 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 68 69 66 61 58 56 56 54 51 47 45 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 28 28 27 27 26 25 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 62 60 60 73 86 79 88 92 116 110 104 92 94 82 68 200 MB DIV 63 52 49 47 27 29 -15 -18 0 17 13 -8 -16 -6 -15 -8 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -7 -5 -2 -3 -2 3 0 0 10 5 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 966 1026 1098 1168 1230 1375 1518 1645 1781 1923 2093 2081 1814 1518 1234 962 680 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.3 117.5 118.8 120.0 122.3 124.3 126.3 128.4 130.4 132.6 135.0 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 14 12 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 17. 14. 7. 2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 26.6% 24.8% 19.0% 14.4% 16.5% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 15.4% 8.4% 5.9% 3.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 15.3% 11.4% 8.4% 5.9% 6.1% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##