* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 78 83 88 88 87 81 74 67 62 58 52 50 47 46 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 78 83 88 88 87 81 74 67 62 58 52 50 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 72 76 79 82 81 80 77 70 63 59 55 51 46 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 9 11 12 9 7 7 3 5 2 12 8 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -1 0 -1 6 0 2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 41 57 16 26 35 46 52 57 360 6 277 250 272 265 263 241 249 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.0 24.7 24.9 26.0 25.3 24.9 25.7 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 145 141 137 131 127 122 113 110 112 124 117 113 122 121 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 66 65 66 67 66 60 58 53 54 50 49 44 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 25 27 28 28 29 29 27 26 25 24 23 23 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 49 57 61 61 63 63 73 87 78 95 88 95 79 86 79 75 56 200 MB DIV 38 47 52 45 44 50 27 2 -24 -9 17 4 -19 -27 8 -12 -8 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -5 -4 -1 1 4 3 10 3 5 -3 LAND (KM) 901 940 993 1055 1129 1263 1398 1546 1677 1804 1938 2078 2089 1801 1496 1181 869 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.2 115.3 116.5 117.7 120.1 122.3 124.4 126.4 128.5 130.5 132.5 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 12 13 14 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 23. 23. 22. 16. 9. 2. -3. -7. -13. -15. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.3 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 33.2% 26.4% 19.8% 15.0% 18.3% 14.0% 10.7% Logistic: 9.0% 17.3% 9.1% 5.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 18.8% 12.4% 8.7% 6.2% 6.8% 4.8% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##