* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 79 83 90 94 93 91 84 79 72 68 62 57 56 52 V (KT) LAND 60 66 73 79 83 90 94 93 91 84 79 72 68 62 57 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 73 78 82 88 92 89 85 78 71 66 62 58 54 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 6 8 13 11 11 7 7 1 2 3 8 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 0 -3 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 0 -1 -6 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 44 34 36 51 34 33 36 35 59 40 51 248 191 243 263 270 272 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 26.3 25.5 24.7 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 145 144 145 139 133 128 124 114 114 114 127 119 111 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 70 67 70 70 72 69 67 64 58 54 51 46 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 25 25 28 29 30 31 29 28 27 25 23 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 50 60 60 63 63 74 90 89 100 97 98 72 56 38 33 200 MB DIV 51 57 74 79 43 52 60 38 0 -9 -3 2 13 -7 -15 6 1 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 0 4 3 7 5 6 LAND (KM) 785 876 915 965 1027 1168 1306 1436 1581 1719 1826 1949 2103 2102 1833 1568 1311 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.1 113.1 114.2 115.4 117.8 120.1 122.3 124.4 126.4 128.3 130.3 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 12 10 14 21 11 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 23. 30. 34. 33. 31. 24. 19. 12. 8. 2. -3. -4. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.3 111.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.7% 51.4% 46.2% 39.6% 24.8% 24.1% 17.3% 13.5% Logistic: 10.3% 22.8% 14.7% 7.9% 4.1% 2.3% 1.2% 2.7% Bayesian: 13.4% 18.5% 9.1% 3.0% 1.4% 4.9% 2.6% 0.1% Consensus: 17.8% 30.9% 23.3% 16.9% 10.1% 10.4% 7.0% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##