* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 54 50 43 37 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 54 50 43 37 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 54 50 43 36 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 11 14 16 12 15 25 33 41 46 50 48 44 42 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 3 6 3 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 261 246 223 218 236 250 261 263 267 274 273 265 263 259 258 256 246 SST (C) 24.8 25.1 25.2 24.9 24.0 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.9 24.8 25.4 25.3 25.7 25.5 25.8 25.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 111 114 115 112 103 106 106 107 112 111 117 116 120 118 122 117 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.6 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 62 60 52 44 44 45 47 44 47 47 49 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 24 25 24 22 18 17 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 34 28 36 44 35 38 36 40 51 59 55 49 37 35 31 30 200 MB DIV 55 32 7 16 22 2 -5 -11 -12 -15 -16 -8 -17 -19 -26 0 -14 700-850 TADV 6 6 7 8 13 15 9 3 10 4 5 4 2 1 2 7 7 LAND (KM) 1935 1985 2041 2102 2100 1873 1652 1433 1202 983 779 620 465 372 292 237 361 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.2 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.7 132.7 133.7 134.7 136.9 139.1 141.3 143.7 146.1 148.5 150.7 153.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -33. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -20. -19. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -15. -22. -28. -38. -46. -54. -61. -68. -73. -79. -83. -87. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.1 130.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##