* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 57 53 46 40 35 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 57 53 46 40 35 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 59 54 50 43 37 32 27 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 4 6 12 15 13 12 19 29 32 35 41 45 47 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 4 2 1 3 2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 291 250 245 222 197 228 250 265 278 276 279 274 274 279 265 257 255 SST (C) 25.4 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.2 24.0 24.2 24.0 24.5 25.2 25.0 25.5 25.2 25.6 25.1 25.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 112 114 115 103 105 103 108 116 113 118 115 120 115 120 115 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 67 64 60 52 44 42 42 43 40 40 40 38 36 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 29 28 26 25 24 20 18 17 18 19 17 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 55 49 40 54 41 40 37 41 42 57 71 68 62 53 40 200 MB DIV 40 43 50 36 13 24 2 1 -8 -1 -2 -1 22 -5 -19 -22 -19 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 6 6 14 13 9 1 8 7 10 7 7 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 1866 1899 1938 1986 2039 2079 1862 1640 1419 1184 967 776 628 497 416 355 406 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.4 21.2 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.2 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.0 130.9 131.9 132.8 134.9 137.0 139.2 141.4 143.8 146.1 148.4 150.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -18. -19. -18. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -24. -30. -35. -44. -49. -54. -55. -56. -61. -67. -74. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.1 129.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##