* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052016 07/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 42 48 62 72 79 80 82 80 74 72 67 62 59 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 42 48 62 72 79 80 82 80 74 72 67 62 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 38 46 56 65 72 75 74 70 65 61 55 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 7 12 10 10 7 5 3 5 6 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 39 45 50 67 58 52 45 62 57 54 43 17 270 265 184 235 233 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 28.6 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.2 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 162 164 163 151 141 136 131 129 122 116 115 107 106 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 73 72 68 64 66 65 69 67 65 62 59 58 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 19 20 23 23 26 27 25 26 26 23 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 22 30 39 47 62 77 89 85 94 87 90 95 99 88 76 200 MB DIV 45 49 61 62 66 64 31 40 48 19 21 9 -3 10 2 -10 -6 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -3 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -3 1 0 5 6 11 LAND (KM) 453 496 553 636 723 837 959 1128 1261 1382 1502 1591 1674 1801 1958 2111 1861 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.0 108.9 109.9 110.9 113.2 115.5 117.9 120.2 122.3 124.2 126.0 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 29 37 38 17 9 13 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 9. 16. 18. 22. 22. 18. 17. 16. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 18. 32. 42. 49. 50. 52. 50. 44. 42. 37. 32. 29. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 107.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 21.2% 19.8% 14.8% 0.0% 17.7% 16.9% 18.6% Logistic: 0.8% 5.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2.3% 3.4% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 3.1% 10.3% 7.7% 5.3% 0.1% 6.7% 6.8% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##