* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 82 81 78 72 62 55 49 43 40 38 39 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 82 81 78 72 62 55 49 43 40 38 39 40 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 81 80 79 72 64 55 46 40 36 34 34 34 35 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 6 3 2 4 5 6 7 6 9 16 15 21 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 1 3 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 4 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 354 35 30 39 47 197 201 202 227 295 316 303 308 290 250 241 235 SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.2 23.7 24.1 24.8 24.9 25.3 25.7 25.9 25.8 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 132 133 130 123 115 100 104 111 113 117 121 123 122 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 74 73 69 64 60 55 47 44 39 39 35 37 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 31 34 33 32 30 28 26 25 22 20 20 21 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 59 59 63 69 58 57 49 60 50 49 49 66 82 99 92 200 MB DIV 55 69 55 28 21 53 9 19 0 -6 -4 -8 -5 10 38 6 1 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 2 7 15 12 10 5 8 1 5 9 9 7 LAND (KM) 1775 1830 1870 1904 1942 2017 2118 2063 1839 1611 1365 1099 839 591 390 216 127 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.7 127.6 128.5 129.4 131.2 133.1 135.1 137.2 139.4 141.8 144.4 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -15. -14. -12. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -18. -25. -31. -37. -40. -42. -41. -40. -41. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.1 125.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 24.0% 16.5% 15.9% 11.7% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 10.1% 6.2% 5.7% 4.1% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##