* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 88 90 93 92 86 75 66 59 54 49 46 44 42 39 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 88 90 93 92 86 75 66 59 54 49 46 44 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 81 83 83 84 81 74 65 56 51 47 45 43 41 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 6 9 4 3 2 3 6 5 8 11 14 14 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 1 -4 -1 -2 0 0 1 3 8 SHEAR DIR 70 58 13 34 43 54 96 59 228 231 254 294 303 300 309 281 281 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.2 23.9 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.9 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 133 131 134 131 127 115 102 108 111 114 116 119 122 121 122 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 72 72 69 66 62 57 51 49 44 43 39 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 33 33 34 34 33 31 29 27 26 25 23 22 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 60 64 69 76 75 66 66 60 69 59 59 49 53 54 56 200 MB DIV 63 55 56 67 58 17 60 18 14 4 10 0 -15 -9 -7 5 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 4 13 9 15 9 10 2 4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1637 1713 1793 1852 1899 1982 2067 2166 2022 1798 1570 1324 1093 878 656 456 276 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.1 129.9 131.7 133.5 135.5 137.6 139.8 142.2 144.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 8 3 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 18. 17. 11. 0. -9. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.9 123.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 26.6% 25.2% 19.5% 14.6% 16.9% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 10.6% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 13.6% 10.2% 7.6% 5.3% 6.0% 4.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##