* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 57 62 69 81 86 86 82 76 68 61 56 51 47 47 47 V (KT) LAND 50 52 57 62 69 81 86 86 82 76 68 61 56 51 47 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 55 59 67 73 75 73 67 59 50 45 41 39 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 3 6 6 6 9 5 3 3 2 6 4 12 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 4 1 2 -3 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 30 337 163 145 114 30 39 49 88 260 140 254 258 297 301 303 303 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.7 28.1 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.1 23.6 24.2 24.5 24.5 25.1 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 142 146 130 126 125 122 114 99 105 108 108 114 117 120 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 74 72 74 75 75 75 75 71 66 61 57 52 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 32 33 37 38 38 37 36 34 32 31 29 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 40 48 52 61 66 68 66 68 61 51 50 43 46 50 42 47 57 200 MB DIV 89 65 63 58 34 61 54 39 44 12 33 0 -1 -19 -6 13 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 -4 -3 -4 0 1 11 15 18 14 12 8 7 LAND (KM) 1329 1398 1470 1551 1637 1791 1892 1958 2034 2124 2040 1829 1604 1350 1105 877 641 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.4 121.5 122.7 123.9 126.0 127.9 129.6 131.4 133.3 135.3 137.3 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 31 20 22 26 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 14. 13. 9. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 19. 31. 36. 36. 32. 26. 18. 11. 6. 1. -3. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 26.6% 25.6% 19.1% 14.4% 20.6% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 27.0% 10.2% 5.9% 2.5% 4.2% 1.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 18.9% 12.4% 8.5% 5.7% 8.6% 6.3% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##