* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 69 77 85 97 100 97 90 86 76 67 60 54 50 47 45 V (KT) LAND 55 61 69 77 85 97 100 97 90 86 76 67 60 54 50 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 73 80 91 94 89 84 78 70 59 51 45 41 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 1 5 7 7 10 7 4 1 2 4 8 11 12 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 4 3 1 0 1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 66 75 101 121 114 46 27 32 60 14 292 289 306 322 320 333 322 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.8 28.2 27.8 26.4 26.6 26.0 26.2 25.1 24.3 24.7 24.9 24.9 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 145 143 147 142 127 130 124 126 114 106 110 112 112 117 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 73 74 76 77 76 76 74 70 64 61 53 50 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 31 32 35 36 36 35 36 34 32 31 30 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 33 44 50 56 66 72 69 68 65 59 52 44 45 43 47 34 33 200 MB DIV 97 96 70 69 73 31 60 54 67 38 33 26 2 -4 -16 -27 -2 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 3 3 12 12 13 14 3 3 LAND (KM) 1287 1368 1437 1508 1586 1747 1878 1958 2047 2148 2103 1884 1641 1393 1146 910 688 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.5 120.6 121.7 122.9 125.1 127.1 128.9 130.8 132.8 134.8 136.8 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 45 35 23 25 20 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 12. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 30. 42. 45. 42. 35. 31. 21. 12. 5. -1. -5. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 118.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 11.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 11.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.6% 59.0% 52.3% 50.0% 34.2% 42.7% 23.6% 14.7% Logistic: 9.9% 35.8% 18.2% 12.1% 5.8% 8.8% 5.0% 3.5% Bayesian: 9.5% 26.3% 18.4% 8.5% 3.3% 9.8% 1.2% 0.2% Consensus: 16.0% 40.4% 29.6% 23.5% 14.4% 20.4% 9.9% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##