* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 25 26 30 33 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 10 8 8 8 8 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 221 227 229 230 232 246 248 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 99 102 106 109 113 116 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 38 36 36 33 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -14 -15 -18 -16 -5 5 21 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 18 6 -2 -21 0 -1 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 12 5 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2015 2065 1977 1873 1770 1540 1309 1077 837 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.6 20.0 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.0 135.9 136.9 137.9 140.1 142.3 144.5 146.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -18. -24. -29. -31. -32. -32. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. -35. -44. -52. -57. -60. -63. -66. -68. -72. -78. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 134.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##