* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 70 77 84 96 101 101 97 89 84 77 68 65 61 60 59 V (KT) LAND 55 63 70 77 84 96 101 101 97 89 84 77 68 65 61 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 71 78 84 96 101 97 92 85 78 69 60 54 52 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 4 9 3 1 2 3 4 3 7 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 -4 -2 -3 0 1 -1 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 83 97 107 78 65 31 65 47 307 305 298 307 352 2 354 352 SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.9 28.2 27.1 26.3 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.4 25.2 25.4 25.0 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 149 144 144 146 135 126 130 127 124 117 116 118 114 118 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 75 73 73 75 74 74 73 69 64 60 55 51 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 24 26 29 32 33 34 33 33 32 29 29 27 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 45 48 55 74 63 57 62 61 50 46 36 38 30 40 37 200 MB DIV 93 89 70 55 64 76 49 42 35 40 -6 26 -10 -17 4 -12 33 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -6 -2 2 5 9 9 10 5 5 5 LAND (KM) 1226 1301 1382 1456 1537 1691 1822 1923 2020 2133 2211 2011 1782 1516 1255 994 735 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.5 119.7 120.9 122.1 124.3 126.2 128.1 130.0 132.0 133.9 135.7 137.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 39 44 31 23 26 8 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 15. 16. 13. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 29. 41. 46. 46. 42. 34. 29. 22. 13. 10. 6. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 117.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 8.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 12.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.1% 61.7% 57.0% 53.0% 36.7% 53.1% 32.2% 15.1% Logistic: 16.2% 42.8% 24.3% 17.7% 9.6% 15.7% 12.4% 10.0% Bayesian: 30.4% 40.9% 32.8% 17.7% 4.6% 20.2% 3.6% 0.1% Consensus: 28.9% 48.5% 38.0% 29.5% 17.0% 29.6% 16.0% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##