* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 42 36 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 42 36 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 43 37 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 14 19 22 28 32 37 36 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 13 16 14 13 12 9 9 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 236 231 215 217 222 227 245 247 262 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.5 24.2 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.6 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 100 96 97 104 109 110 112 120 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 49 43 42 41 36 35 31 31 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 18 16 12 9 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 2 -8 -8 -11 -15 0 6 22 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 16 22 15 5 1 0 -4 -5 -2 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 8 12 13 8 6 0 4 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1953 1998 2022 2055 2019 1812 1594 1365 1123 890 648 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.7 20.2 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.9 133.7 134.6 135.5 137.5 139.6 141.8 144.1 146.3 148.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. -24. -27. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -26. -36. -46. -56. -63. -70. -75. -77. -79. -82. -85. -91. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 132.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##