* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 42 47 53 65 73 80 84 81 78 73 66 59 56 52 49 V (KT) LAND 35 37 42 47 53 65 73 80 84 81 78 73 66 59 56 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 37 39 46 55 64 69 70 68 66 58 51 47 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 10 10 9 3 1 5 6 5 4 5 9 3 4 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -4 -6 0 4 -3 -4 -3 -4 1 1 -1 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 47 48 69 78 81 348 61 51 64 136 153 144 209 281 298 278 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.2 27.5 27.8 26.3 26.2 25.8 26.0 24.6 24.0 24.6 24.6 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 150 147 140 143 127 125 122 124 109 104 110 110 114 117 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 74 73 70 70 72 71 70 66 62 57 56 53 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 22 26 28 30 33 32 32 31 29 27 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 41 50 56 64 78 72 73 76 76 66 78 68 72 59 61 200 MB DIV 99 104 88 73 63 58 78 45 70 49 37 15 40 -20 14 13 37 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 1 0 -6 -5 0 0 5 7 3 5 3 4 LAND (KM) 1116 1156 1207 1280 1354 1503 1654 1808 1904 2001 2094 2138 1892 1632 1369 1104 844 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.9 19.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.3 117.4 118.6 119.7 122.1 124.4 126.6 128.6 130.5 132.4 134.4 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 13 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 23 38 40 18 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 17. 16. 15. 11. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 18. 30. 38. 45. 49. 46. 43. 38. 31. 24. 21. 17. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 25.0% 22.3% 16.2% 12.1% 19.2% 23.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 12.1% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 4.9% 8.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 12.7% 8.9% 6.2% 4.3% 8.1% 10.6% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##