* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 59 53 46 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 59 53 46 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 63 56 49 42 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 10 18 25 33 33 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 10 12 17 15 13 12 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 223 221 227 221 217 214 219 244 260 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.5 24.2 24.2 23.7 23.4 23.8 24.4 24.5 25.0 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 108 104 104 99 96 100 107 108 113 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 54 47 43 38 31 31 26 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 25 23 21 17 12 9 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 8 3 -5 -8 -12 2 10 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 54 43 40 39 10 -2 0 -3 -17 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 24 17 12 11 7 6 0 3 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1889 1903 1921 1959 1968 2039 1855 1627 1416 1205 983 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.1 20.6 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.4 132.0 132.7 133.4 135.1 137.1 139.3 141.3 143.3 145.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -28. -29. -32. -30. -27. -25. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -24. -38. -51. -61. -70. -77. -84. -85. -87. -90. -94. -99.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.8 130.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##