* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 86 81 74 61 46 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 90 86 81 74 61 46 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 89 81 73 66 52 40 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 3 7 8 10 10 22 21 27 32 36 40 35 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 9 9 12 11 18 12 11 7 5 3 4 9 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 149 126 170 193 176 197 187 223 228 231 243 258 249 254 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.2 24.6 23.5 23.8 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 118 117 115 108 97 100 107 109 111 116 118 122 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 60 58 53 44 37 31 27 25 26 28 30 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 31 31 28 27 22 17 13 10 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 52 40 37 42 25 9 -2 -10 -9 0 17 19 20 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 51 52 45 63 49 34 2 -7 -10 -10 -1 -24 -37 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 12 15 18 19 13 9 12 5 3 -4 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1842 1862 1886 1898 1915 1963 2009 2000 1798 1583 1367 1150 933 724 515 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.8 20.1 21.1 21.8 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.0 129.7 130.4 131.0 132.4 133.9 135.7 137.7 139.8 141.9 144.0 146.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -45. -48. -50. -52. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -10. -19. -28. -33. -36. -35. -33. -31. -28. -26. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -21. -34. -49. -63. -76. -85. -92. -97.-101.-105.-109.-112.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.7 128.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 478.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##