* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 89 85 78 67 51 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 95 89 85 78 67 51 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 93 86 78 72 59 46 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 6 10 14 15 16 22 25 32 38 38 40 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 4 5 10 12 15 12 10 6 2 8 9 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 139 151 174 163 170 187 187 230 233 247 262 250 245 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.3 24.9 24.2 23.3 24.2 24.5 24.7 25.2 25.2 25.7 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 123 117 116 111 104 95 104 108 110 115 115 120 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 66 62 58 54 47 40 35 29 27 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 31 32 30 29 24 21 15 12 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 55 63 53 46 58 29 18 3 1 3 17 22 21 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 58 63 66 57 63 41 13 -6 -16 -19 -14 -28 -37 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 6 8 10 22 12 13 7 10 1 3 -3 -5 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1806 1826 1850 1871 1896 1949 2016 2052 1897 1682 1467 1253 1048 832 624 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.5 21.3 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.2 128.9 129.7 130.4 131.8 133.2 134.8 136.7 138.8 140.9 143.0 145.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -24. -32. -40. -45. -50. -53. -55. -57. -59. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -20. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -9. -16. -25. -30. -35. -34. -33. -30. -29. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -22. -33. -49. -61. -75. -86. -95.-100.-106.-111.-115.-117.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.4 127.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 510.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##