* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 63 72 84 91 98 104 106 99 91 86 78 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 53 63 72 84 91 98 104 106 99 91 86 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 61 74 88 99 109 109 97 83 70 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 5 7 7 10 10 10 8 3 7 10 19 22 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 4 2 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 137 165 150 98 90 96 81 67 78 59 72 73 74 64 53 51 59 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.6 26.9 25.8 25.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 149 148 148 148 150 150 152 152 151 140 133 122 120 103 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 76 78 78 79 80 81 78 77 73 69 70 69 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 19 20 24 27 31 35 40 38 37 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -8 -2 8 14 26 35 49 62 65 66 76 79 69 52 49 200 MB DIV 46 48 46 48 65 70 99 106 101 84 105 114 116 50 37 0 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -3 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 929 972 1019 1071 1125 1242 1314 1408 1511 1617 1685 1754 1832 1882 1932 2003 2095 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.1 14.0 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.6 111.3 112.0 112.7 114.3 115.9 117.6 119.2 120.8 122.5 124.5 126.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 25 23 22 20 22 35 38 33 30 34 12 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 16. 20. 25. 29. 31. 27. 23. 21. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 33. 42. 54. 61. 68. 74. 76. 69. 61. 56. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 109.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 21.6% 20.9% 16.1% 0.0% 18.7% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 24.5% 11.0% 5.8% 2.1% 17.2% 30.2% 38.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 28.2% 7.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 21.9% Consensus: 4.9% 24.8% 13.2% 7.9% 0.9% 12.2% 16.3% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##