* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 105 102 91 82 73 62 53 42 36 30 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 105 102 91 82 73 62 53 42 36 30 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 106 101 96 90 79 68 57 46 36 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 7 9 9 11 15 12 7 13 17 27 33 31 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 4 6 7 4 10 10 20 13 14 7 5 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 216 121 87 107 96 100 131 155 186 183 237 240 256 252 243 236 236 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.0 25.1 24.6 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.0 25.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 137 132 131 123 114 108 101 103 106 107 109 113 112 115 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 65 66 61 54 48 43 39 34 28 25 27 24 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 33 33 35 33 32 30 26 24 19 16 14 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 44 44 49 65 61 58 33 22 9 15 9 21 17 20 21 200 MB DIV 91 87 80 73 60 74 53 47 19 6 14 -3 0 -18 3 -10 -22 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 5 5 6 8 23 22 15 10 9 7 5 0 6 0 LAND (KM) 1645 1704 1767 1810 1851 1921 1984 2053 2123 1956 1775 1596 1425 1244 1084 937 792 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.1 21.2 21.9 22.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.2 126.2 127.1 128.0 129.6 131.2 132.7 134.3 136.1 137.9 139.7 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 17 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -23. -32. -41. -49. -55. -60. -62. -64. -67. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -9. -12. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -19. -28. -37. -48. -57. -68. -74. -80. -87. -92. -97.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.1 124.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 -1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 21.4% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.5% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 2 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##