* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 119 118 115 104 92 82 72 59 50 40 34 27 22 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 115 117 119 118 115 104 92 82 72 59 50 40 34 27 22 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 116 115 113 108 93 81 68 56 44 35 27 23 19 17 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 6 5 7 8 10 13 8 6 9 13 20 28 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 4 7 8 7 11 12 16 8 7 5 2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 358 36 65 56 68 85 94 141 160 184 183 228 241 260 271 261 248 SST (C) 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.0 25.2 24.7 24.0 24.2 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 150 144 138 131 123 115 110 102 105 109 111 111 114 115 116 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 65 66 66 62 55 44 36 29 22 20 21 23 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 35 37 36 36 33 32 30 26 22 18 14 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 28 36 43 46 66 56 73 58 54 32 26 8 4 -2 -6 200 MB DIV 105 94 97 79 36 41 75 44 62 21 17 4 -9 -15 -28 -19 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -2 0 4 5 9 22 17 12 9 7 5 5 1 3 LAND (KM) 1537 1588 1645 1707 1774 1851 1921 1989 2080 2114 1912 1696 1504 1323 1162 1031 904 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.2 124.2 125.2 126.2 128.0 129.6 131.1 132.8 134.6 136.5 138.6 140.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 29 30 17 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -22. -32. -42. -50. -56. -61. -64. -66. -69. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -17. -22. -24. -26. -25. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. -0. -11. -23. -33. -43. -56. -65. -75. -81. -88. -93. -98.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.5 122.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 495.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 22.1% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 3.1% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 8.6% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##