* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 98 105 111 120 114 106 95 82 70 57 45 37 30 23 18 V (KT) LAND 85 91 98 105 111 120 114 106 95 82 70 57 45 37 30 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 85 91 95 99 102 108 102 91 80 66 52 40 31 25 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 3 4 6 5 10 3 12 10 8 6 3 18 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 7 13 17 15 14 16 12 10 7 2 3 SHEAR DIR 42 18 9 30 54 31 60 49 44 147 190 148 170 215 267 269 251 SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.8 27.9 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.0 24.2 24.6 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 153 148 148 153 143 124 124 121 117 102 104 108 109 111 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -52.1 -51.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 69 68 67 64 66 64 60 51 38 30 26 24 21 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 31 32 36 33 34 33 30 27 24 18 14 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 32 30 30 39 41 47 58 66 50 41 33 17 7 -1 11 200 MB DIV 58 56 80 71 58 76 45 65 78 78 25 14 6 -10 -6 -11 -25 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 1 5 9 20 27 12 6 4 6 3 2 LAND (KM) 1370 1433 1489 1544 1606 1722 1823 1919 2001 2080 2147 1965 1788 1593 1400 1205 1001 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.1 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.3 121.4 122.5 123.6 125.5 127.4 129.3 131.0 132.6 134.3 136.0 137.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 33 22 22 30 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. -31. -34. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 8. 9. 5. 1. -4. -11. -14. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 35. 29. 21. 10. -3. -15. -28. -40. -48. -55. -62. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.1 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 38.0% 30.0% 22.7% 18.1% 19.6% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 23.5% 41.3% 22.2% 17.7% 10.8% 8.6% 1.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 22.3% 51.9% 31.9% 19.1% 5.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.2% 43.8% 28.0% 19.8% 11.4% 9.8% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##