* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 84 92 102 114 119 109 100 90 79 68 59 51 45 37 30 V (KT) LAND 70 76 84 92 102 114 119 109 100 90 79 68 59 51 45 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 81 87 94 103 108 102 89 76 63 51 41 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 10 5 6 3 1 4 7 13 8 3 2 8 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 10 15 17 14 12 16 19 16 12 11 SHEAR DIR 52 48 45 36 45 47 63 144 61 96 143 184 143 288 253 249 247 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.5 27.7 27.7 26.2 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.2 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 148 140 142 141 125 119 118 116 104 105 109 112 115 116 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 70 68 68 65 61 61 61 58 50 44 37 30 26 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 30 33 36 39 35 35 35 32 29 26 23 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 16 23 25 33 46 49 53 53 48 40 33 22 16 20 35 200 MB DIV 69 73 50 34 34 64 69 37 48 77 60 24 -12 8 9 -24 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 5 3 7 14 22 16 12 13 7 8 LAND (KM) 1195 1246 1308 1372 1425 1552 1687 1790 1867 1950 2047 2150 1954 1728 1507 1275 1059 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.4 118.6 119.8 121.1 123.4 125.5 127.5 129.2 130.8 132.5 134.2 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 36 48 35 15 16 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 14. 13. 9. 5. 0. -3. -5. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 32. 44. 49. 39. 30. 20. 9. -2. -11. -19. -25. -33. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.9 116.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 41.7% 30.7% 21.9% 18.3% 20.0% 16.4% 12.9% Logistic: 32.2% 57.0% 29.2% 23.5% 14.0% 13.7% 2.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 10.4% 50.4% 24.6% 10.2% 4.2% 15.5% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 23.5% 49.7% 28.2% 18.5% 12.1% 16.4% 6.3% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##