* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 80 89 97 112 116 113 103 90 82 72 65 56 50 44 36 V (KT) LAND 65 72 80 89 97 112 116 113 103 90 82 72 65 56 50 44 36 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 85 93 105 110 107 93 79 67 56 45 37 32 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 10 7 6 5 5 5 4 8 7 4 3 2 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -1 -1 -1 0 4 9 14 11 13 11 12 13 12 13 SHEAR DIR 49 52 54 42 47 63 57 108 193 116 140 180 122 117 267 277 251 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.4 27.9 26.8 26.0 25.5 25.6 24.3 24.1 24.6 24.8 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 154 153 148 139 144 132 123 118 119 106 104 109 111 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 72 69 66 64 60 59 58 57 52 51 45 41 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 28 31 36 37 37 37 33 32 30 28 25 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 9 10 17 27 39 53 51 61 51 43 44 35 21 21 20 200 MB DIV 54 66 69 37 26 41 71 56 45 40 51 35 26 1 4 -2 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 1 5 5 3 16 16 13 13 14 6 LAND (KM) 1175 1215 1266 1328 1390 1508 1640 1765 1849 1952 2039 2133 1996 1812 1615 1426 1238 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.3 117.5 118.8 120.0 122.4 124.6 126.7 128.6 130.5 132.2 133.9 135.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 38 48 33 13 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 17. 12. 11. 8. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 32. 47. 51. 48. 38. 25. 17. 7. -0. -9. -15. -21. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.5 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.0% 48.9% 40.4% 29.8% 24.7% 25.1% 17.4% 13.8% Logistic: 26.8% 49.7% 25.2% 18.4% 8.7% 15.7% 6.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 19.8% 64.7% 40.8% 20.5% 7.4% 21.7% 3.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.5% 54.4% 35.4% 22.9% 13.6% 20.8% 8.9% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##