* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 30 32 34 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 2 2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 228 227 233 241 240 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.3 24.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 112 114 116 109 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 40 39 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -3 3 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 18 11 7 -3 -27 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1666 1732 1801 1876 1952 2122 2046 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.6 129.6 130.5 131.5 133.4 135.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -21. -27. -32. -34. -35. -35. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -24. -31. -38. -44. -48. -51. -54. -57. -60. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 127.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##