* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 38 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 38 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 34 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 13 16 17 26 27 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 243 234 231 230 227 229 243 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.7 25.0 24.7 24.9 25.3 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 121 113 110 111 115 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 43 40 37 37 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -4 -5 0 9 1 1 -12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 10 4 -18 0 -1 -15 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 -1 4 0 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1359 1416 1479 1530 1588 1719 1859 1996 2154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.3 124.4 125.6 126.7 128.7 130.5 132.2 134.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -8. -15. -25. -32. -36. -39. -40. -41. -42. -42. -44. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 122.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 7.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##