* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 40 40 37 33 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 40 40 37 33 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 40 37 32 27 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 8 9 11 20 25 24 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 25 220 244 239 221 223 218 223 220 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 25.3 25.0 24.9 25.9 25.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 133 133 132 116 113 111 122 122 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 49 49 44 41 40 37 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 14 4 0 -1 -2 -5 -5 0 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 5 4 12 11 -6 -10 -2 -19 -36 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1257 1288 1328 1384 1447 1560 1696 1857 2029 2217 2101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.2 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.6 121.6 122.7 123.7 125.8 127.8 129.7 131.5 133.3 135.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 5 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -14. -19. -23. -22. -21. -20. -19. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 119.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 24.0% 22.4% 16.8% 12.2% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 13.1% 14.2% 4.4% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.7% 12.4% 12.2% 7.1% 5.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##