* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022016 07/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 32 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 32 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 34 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 3 8 11 15 19 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 16 10 215 235 224 224 217 221 224 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.3 25.4 25.1 25.4 26.3 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 137 134 133 127 117 113 117 126 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 51 52 50 45 43 42 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 14 3 0 -3 -7 -15 -6 0 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 2 7 12 9 1 -14 2 0 -25 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1221 1256 1292 1333 1383 1524 1643 1774 1933 2131 2276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.4 16.7 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.5 120.4 121.4 122.4 124.6 126.6 128.4 130.1 131.9 133.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 20 7 4 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. -14. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 23.1% 22.0% 16.6% 0.0% 16.8% 14.5% 12.3% Logistic: 16.7% 23.2% 18.4% 8.5% 4.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.7% 15.7% 13.5% 8.4% 1.4% 6.3% 4.9% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 TWO 07/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##