* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 44 39 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 42 42 40 35 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 40 39 38 33 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 31 37 43 52 66 70 67 58 40 25 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -1 6 16 4 -3 2 11 18 12 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 253 246 239 226 226 243 247 250 251 253 254 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 26.5 26.7 26.1 20.5 10.3 3.4 13.2 9.9 8.4 8.2 8.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 126 129 123 88 71 68 71 67 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 124 128 120 84 70 N/A 68 65 63 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -48.8 -46.9 -46.6 -45.9 -45.6 -44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 56 50 50 50 41 39 48 61 64 68 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 4 21 68 91 160 169 185 203 192 221 240 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 86 70 73 64 87 84 53 49 68 71 64 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 40 0 35 -7 -30 -28 46 18 6 -2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 -22 53 111 383 392 345 389 836 1237 1474 1292 1146 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 31.1 32.8 34.8 36.7 40.5 43.7 46.4 48.9 51.2 53.2 55.0 56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 81.8 78.9 75.1 71.3 63.0 55.2 48.0 41.6 36.2 32.3 29.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 30 34 37 37 35 31 27 23 18 13 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 19 CX,CY: 12/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -13. -26. -38. -44. -49. -51. -51. -60. -66. -69. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -22. -33. -42. -49. -53. -56. -67. -72. -74. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.3 84.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/07/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 42 42 40 35 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 49 49 47 42 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 39 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT