* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 52 52 50 49 41 37 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 39 42 40 39 31 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 40 42 41 36 29 24 20 18 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 31 34 47 58 69 81 70 64 40 27 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 13 9 0 8 1 -3 0 1 9 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 241 245 246 246 239 242 257 264 256 242 235 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.4 27.6 26.1 25.9 21.1 10.7 4.3 14.3 10.2 8.3 8.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 147 137 121 121 91 72 68 72 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 140 130 116 117 87 71 N/A 69 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -49.2 -46.1 -45.4 -45.7 -45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.9 0.2 1.5 2.5 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 67 61 54 46 47 45 40 50 62 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 19 18 20 21 25 24 26 28 26 26 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 44 3 -1 17 64 145 164 193 247 193 210 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 130 128 87 70 55 76 73 26 33 38 59 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 28 39 37 18 -26 42 64 122 100 39 20 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 346 197 37 -41 23 293 430 367 433 923 1295 1457 1227 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 28.0 29.6 31.2 32.7 36.1 39.8 43.5 46.6 49.1 51.4 53.4 55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.3 85.8 84.4 82.0 79.5 72.5 64.0 55.3 47.3 40.4 35.4 32.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 23 26 30 36 38 35 29 23 17 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 8 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 17 CX,CY: 3/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -24. -37. -47. -55. -59. -59. -69. -75. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 9. 8. 12. 13. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. -4. -8. -17. -29. -39. -42. -52. -58. -62. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.4 87.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 39 42 40 39 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 35 38 36 35 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 29 32 30 29 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 36 35 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT