* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 40 43 44 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 34 40 41 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 31 33 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 22 25 29 44 58 73 83 74 55 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 5 11 8 -1 1 -6 -15 -5 -1 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 243 260 260 250 237 246 265 268 266 250 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 27.4 25.9 17.6 5.4 6.2 9.8 8.7 8.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 144 150 154 136 121 81 69 68 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 135 142 149 135 119 78 69 67 66 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -49.1 -47.1 -45.7 -45.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 74 72 65 51 45 47 51 45 55 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 19 18 19 20 17 15 13 15 21 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 40 32 15 -3 42 64 128 140 192 209 202 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 108 129 135 87 63 53 69 47 20 52 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 18 28 48 52 30 -65 -8 62 126 116 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 314 432 269 81 -46 152 529 489 303 707 1084 1349 1407 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.9 27.3 28.8 30.3 33.5 37.2 41.1 44.5 47.3 50.0 52.5 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 86.6 85.6 83.8 81.9 75.9 67.9 59.0 50.8 43.4 38.2 34.9 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 19 22 26 34 38 37 32 26 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 49 11 10 15 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -13. -28. -41. -52. -59. -65. -76. -84. -87. -89. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. -0. -3. -6. -6. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 8. 9. 0. -9. -21. -30. -31. -38. -49. -56. -61. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 87.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.9% 8.5% 5.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 3.1% 1.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 34 40 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 32 38 39 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 27 33 34 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 19 25 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT