* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 47 49 50 48 37 29 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 43 45 46 44 32 25 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 38 38 36 31 25 23 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 20 29 34 42 55 68 64 49 27 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 7 8 0 4 1 2 -2 4 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 243 239 244 261 258 252 243 259 263 255 242 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.4 25.1 25.2 11.3 3.0 10.1 9.4 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 143 150 149 114 115 72 67 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 131 134 143 147 112 110 70 N/A 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.1 -47.4 -45.7 -45.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.1 1.7 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 78 75 75 72 59 46 47 43 41 47 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 21 23 23 24 27 28 25 26 30 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 51 48 27 19 10 59 111 145 182 262 270 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 124 135 159 131 42 64 73 105 25 53 67 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 15 22 34 62 19 11 -22 72 116 80 21 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 179 335 421 229 77 142 385 538 465 400 785 1157 1475 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.6 25.9 27.4 28.8 31.8 35.3 39.1 42.6 45.7 48.6 51.4 54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.8 87.1 86.5 85.1 83.7 78.8 71.5 62.8 54.9 48.1 42.3 37.4 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 17 19 22 31 37 37 32 27 23 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 20 45 10 10 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. -8. -19. -30. -40. -44. -46. -55. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 9. 11. 6. 7. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 13. 2. -6. -8. -14. -22. -27. -30. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.2 87.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.8% 9.7% 6.0% 5.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.0% 3.6% 2.1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 43 45 46 44 32 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 40 42 43 41 29 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 34 36 37 35 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 25 27 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT